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Spotlight on Economics - by Philip Shaw

  1. 24 Mar, 2015

    CPI inflation – Touch and go for negative territory?

    CPI inflation fell by more than expected in February, declining to 0.0% from January’s level of +0.3%. Consensus and Investec expectations had been for a more modest drop to +0.1%. More
  2. 23 Mar, 2015

    UK election latest – 45 days to go

    The thrust of last week’s Budget was much along the lines as we suspected. In the near-term there were modest measures to help key groups of voters in areas such as savings, which were funded largely through an increase in the Bank Levy. More
  3. 20 Mar, 2015

    Borrowing figures eclipsed by debate over longer-term fiscal plans

    UK borrowing figures for the penultimate month of the 2014/15 fiscal year beat consensus expectations. The headline borrowing measure (PSNB-ex banks) was recorded at £6.9bn, whilst expectations had been for £8.4bn and our own forecast £7.7bn. More
  4. 20 Mar, 2015

    The week ahead: Monday 23 March 2015

    This week’s Federal Reserve statement saw the ‘patient’ wording dropped from its guidance on rates. Critically though it also weakened its language on economic growth and exports and pushed down its GDP forecasts. More
  5. 19 Mar, 2015

    Budget 2015 reaction – From austerity to prosperity?

    The Chancellor’s sixth Budget saw Mr Osborne wisely opting to reinforce his reputation for fiscal prudence by avoiding the temptation for a major pre-election giveaway. More
  6. 19 Mar, 2015

    Jobless figures fail to inspire before the Budget

    Of course the domestic focus today will be on fiscal rather than monetary policy. However March’s MPC minutes were published today, as were the latest set of monthly labour market data. More
  7. 16 Mar, 2015

    The week ahead: Monday 16 March 2015

    On the international stage, the major event of the week will be Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Our views on what to expect from this gathering are discussed in a short article below. More
  8. 16 Mar, 2015

    UK election latest – 52 days to go

    Recent polls have suggested that the Conservatives have modest momentum behind them with Labour’s minor advantage having now seemingly been replaced by a very small (1% or so) Tory lead. More
  9. 12 Mar, 2015

    Budget 2015 preview – Election preparations with 2020 vision

    Depending on the 7 May General Election result, next Wednesday’s Budget might be George Osborne’s last and there could be a repeat exercise in two to three months’ time, as there was in 2010. More
  10. 10 Mar, 2015

    UK election latest – 59 days to go

    There has been little overall change in the opinion polls overall, with on average, the Conservatives continuing to score very marginally behind Labour, although a couple of polls did show the Tories in front by 2-3 points. More