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Spotlight on Economics - by Philip Shaw

  1. 01 Apr, 2015

    A pre-election boost as growth revised higher?

    The second revision to UK fourth quarter GDP growth provided an upside surprise with the quarterly pace of growth pushed up to +0.6% from +0.5%, ahead of market expectations and our own forecast of no change on the earlier estimate. More
  2. 30 Mar, 2015

    The week ahead: Monday 30 March 2015

    On the international stage there are likely to be several big focal points for financial markets. On the international stage there are likely to be several big focal points for financial markets. Firstly, on the geo-political stage, eyes will be trailed on developments that follow the Saudi auth... More
  3. 30 Mar, 2015

    UK election latest – 38 days to go

    The dissolution of parliament at midnight last night marks the official start of the General Election campaign. More
  4. 27 Mar, 2015

    Global Economic Overview - Of Impatience, Noflation and Greccidents…

    Global sentiment continues to be heavily swayed by the every word of the US Fed as it gears up for ‘normalisation’. More
  5. 24 Mar, 2015

    CPI inflation – Touch and go for negative territory?

    CPI inflation fell by more than expected in February, declining to 0.0% from January’s level of +0.3%. Consensus and Investec expectations had been for a more modest drop to +0.1%. More
  6. 23 Mar, 2015

    UK election latest – 45 days to go

    The thrust of last week’s Budget was much along the lines as we suspected. In the near-term there were modest measures to help key groups of voters in areas such as savings, which were funded largely through an increase in the Bank Levy. More
  7. 20 Mar, 2015

    Borrowing figures eclipsed by debate over longer-term fiscal plans

    UK borrowing figures for the penultimate month of the 2014/15 fiscal year beat consensus expectations. The headline borrowing measure (PSNB-ex banks) was recorded at £6.9bn, whilst expectations had been for £8.4bn and our own forecast £7.7bn. More
  8. 20 Mar, 2015

    The week ahead: Monday 23 March 2015

    This week’s Federal Reserve statement saw the ‘patient’ wording dropped from its guidance on rates. Critically though it also weakened its language on economic growth and exports and pushed down its GDP forecasts. More
  9. 19 Mar, 2015

    Budget 2015 reaction – From austerity to prosperity?

    The Chancellor’s sixth Budget saw Mr Osborne wisely opting to reinforce his reputation for fiscal prudence by avoiding the temptation for a major pre-election giveaway. More
  10. 19 Mar, 2015

    Jobless figures fail to inspire before the Budget

    Of course the domestic focus today will be on fiscal rather than monetary policy. However March’s MPC minutes were published today, as were the latest set of monthly labour market data. More