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  1. 24 Mar, 2015

    Employment update: non-farm employment decreases in 2014 and 2015 job prospects are muted

    Based on the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) for Q4.14, non-farm employment levels increased marginally, by 42 000 to 8.99mn individuals from 8.95mn in Q3.14. Compared to Q4.13, employment levels were down by 20 000. More
  2. 24 Mar, 2015

    CPI inflation – Touch and go for negative territory?

    CPI inflation fell by more than expected in February, declining to 0.0% from January’s level of +0.3%. Consensus and Investec expectations had been for a more modest drop to +0.1%. More
  3. 23 Mar, 2015

    UK election latest – 45 days to go

    The thrust of last week’s Budget was much along the lines as we suspected. In the near-term there were modest measures to help key groups of voters in areas such as savings, which were funded largely through an increase in the Bank Levy. More
  4. 20 Mar, 2015

    More dovish US monetary policy tone lightens pressure on SA rate trajectory, SA repo rate to remain unchanged in March

    The latest communication from the US Federal Reserve Bank has had a more dovish tone leading to expectations that the US will not hike interest rates by as much, or as quickly, as was previously assumed. More
  5. 20 Mar, 2015

    Borrowing figures eclipsed by debate over longer-term fiscal plans

    UK borrowing figures for the penultimate month of the 2014/15 fiscal year beat consensus expectations. The headline borrowing measure (PSNB-ex banks) was recorded at £6.9bn, whilst expectations had been for £8.4bn and our own forecast £7.7bn. More
  6. 20 Mar, 2015

    The week ahead: Monday 23 March 2015

    This week’s Federal Reserve statement saw the ‘patient’ wording dropped from its guidance on rates. Critically though it also weakened its language on economic growth and exports and pushed down its GDP forecasts. More
  7. 19 Mar, 2015

    Budget 2015 reaction – From austerity to prosperity?

    The Chancellor’s sixth Budget saw Mr Osborne wisely opting to reinforce his reputation for fiscal prudence by avoiding the temptation for a major pre-election giveaway. More
  8. 19 Mar, 2015

    Jobless figures fail to inspire before the Budget

    Of course the domestic focus today will be on fiscal rather than monetary policy. However March’s MPC minutes were published today, as were the latest set of monthly labour market data. More
  9. 18 Mar, 2015

    CPI Update: inflation falls to 3.9% y/y in February, but this is likely to be the last reading in the disinflation trend for the next few months given the heady increase in the pertrol price coming through in March and April

    CPI inflation dropped to 3.9% y/y (mid point of the inflation target is 4.5% y/y) in February from 4.4% y/y in January on the large (93c/litre) cut in the petrol price in February. More
  10. 18 Mar, 2015

    Retail sales growth moderates in January as over indebted consumers pull back after the festive season spend, 2015 will likely see weaker retail sales growth than 2014

    Retail sales growth came out at 1.7% y/y in January 2015, with a monthly contraction of 0.1% seasonally adjusted. More