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Economy

  1. 27 Feb, 2015

    Slower credit growth, higher taxes and modest real income growth to act as constraints on household spending

    Private sector credit extension increased at a pace of 9.2% y/y in January, compared to an 8.6% y/y rise in December. The lift in the annual growth rate was underpinned by faster growth in credit extension to corporates of 15.4% y/y versus a prior 14.0% y/y. More
  2. 27 Feb, 2015

    MPC preview – next rate move up, but not for a while

    The MPC makes its March announcement on Thursday, six years to the day that the committee reduced the Bank rate to 0.5% and launched what has been a £375bn Quantitative Easing programme. More
  3. 26 Feb, 2015

    A somewhat better than expected budget showing a reduction in projected net debt (% of GDP), consolidation of the deficit and reduction in expenditure growth – likely to prompt neutral to positive comments from the rating agencies

    SA’s 2015 Budget shows lower than previously projected debt for the medium-term (net debt now projected at 43.7% in 2017/18 from a MTBPS estimate of 45.9% of GDP), while the fiscal deficit averages exactly 3.0% of GDP over the medium term. More
  4. 26 Feb, 2015

    Government adheres to commitment of fiscal consolidation despite deterioration in GDP growth outlook

    Against a backdrop of a fragile economic growth outlook and risks of further sovereign downgrades, the 2015 Budget continues to demonstrate a commitment to efforts of fiscal consolidation, a lowering of the budget deficit and stabilising debt levels. More
  5. 26 Feb, 2015

    PPI Snapshot - producer price inflation plunges 2.3% y/y on lower oil prices to 3.5% y/y; but CPI inflation is unlikely to see the same sharp drop on the month

    PPI inflation dropped to 3.5% y/y in January, from 5.8% y/y the month before. It is likely to fall further this year on base effects, and the drop in commodity prices, nearing 1.0% y/y due to its heavy commodity bias. More
  6. 26 Feb, 2015

    Economies make progress despite deflation fears

    We maintain our view that we should see a pick-up in global growth this year; we forecast 3.7%. We maintain our view that we should see a pick-up in global growth this year; we forecast 3.7%. However we note that across the globe, more central banks appear to be treating deflation as a more seri... More
  7. 13 Feb, 2015
  8. 24 Feb, 2015

    2014 GDP slows to 1.5% from 2.3% previously on the underperformance of the industrial sector

    In Q4.14, the economy produced growth of 4.1%, on a quarter on quarter seasonally adjusted annualised (qqsaa) basis, slightly stronger than market expectations of a 3.8% qqsaa rise. More
  9. 24 Feb, 2015

    Week Ahead: 2015 Budget to provide insight into government policy

    Key data releases in the week ahead   SA: 2015 Budget, Q4.14 GDP, PPI, PSCE, Trade Balance US: Q4.14 GDP, CPI, PCE Price Index, Home Sales Euro zone: CPI, Business Confidence More
  10. 20 Feb, 2015

    The week ahead: Monday 23 February 2015

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimonies to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday are set to be the week’s standout events. More