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Economy

  1. 05 Mar, 2015

    MPC reaction – Six years and counting (for a few months longer?)

    On the sixth anniversary of the introduction of QE and near zero interest rates, the MPC left policy unchanged at this month’s meeting, as widely expected. Hence the Bank rate was held at 0.5% and the asset purchase target at £375bn. The committee did not publish a material statement. More
  2. 03 Mar, 2015

    Vehicle Sales update: new vehicles sales performance reflective of relatively modest economic growth

    Total new vehicle sales registered only modest growth of 1.1% y/y in February, following a contraction of 1.3% y/y in January. More
  3. 03 Mar, 2015

    January trade deficit recorded at –R24.2bn (December R6.8bn), as exports fell by R20bn on the decline in commodity prices, weak global demand and production constraints

    The trade deficit recorded –R24.2bn in January, partly due to the seasonal component of reduced work days which typically sees a large deficit at the start of the year. More
  4. 02 Mar, 2015

    PMI update: operating conditions deteriorate in February as load shedding and weak global trade growth constrain production

    The manufacturing PMI reflected a substantial deterioration in operating conditions in February. For the first time since August 2014, the index level dropped back below to 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Specifically, the index declined to 47.6 from 54.2 in January. More
  5. 02 Mar, 2015

    The week ahead: Monday 2 March 2015

    For markets globally, a major focus for the week ahead will be Friday’s report on the US labour market. It will be eyed with even more keenness than usual following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s recent monetary policy testimonies. More
  6. 27 Feb, 2015

    Slower credit growth, higher taxes and modest real income growth to act as constraints on household spending

    Private sector credit extension increased at a pace of 9.2% y/y in January, compared to an 8.6% y/y rise in December. The lift in the annual growth rate was underpinned by faster growth in credit extension to corporates of 15.4% y/y versus a prior 14.0% y/y. More
  7. 27 Feb, 2015

    Week Ahead: Effects of national rolling power outages and weak export growth likely to constrain expansion of manufacturing output

    Key data releases in the week ahead   SA: Manufacturing PMI, Vehicle Sales, International Reserves US: Non-Farm Payrolls, Factory Orders, PCE Index, ISM Index Euro zone: ECB Announcement, Final Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment More
  8. 27 Feb, 2015

    MPC preview – next rate move up, but not for a while

    The MPC makes its March announcement on Thursday, six years to the day that the committee reduced the Bank rate to 0.5% and launched what has been a £375bn Quantitative Easing programme. More
  9. 26 Feb, 2015

    A somewhat better than expected budget showing a reduction in projected net debt (% of GDP), consolidation of the deficit and reduction in expenditure growth – likely to prompt neutral to positive comments from the rating agencies

    SA’s 2015 Budget shows lower than previously projected debt for the medium-term (net debt now projected at 43.7% in 2017/18 from a MTBPS estimate of 45.9% of GDP), while the fiscal deficit averages exactly 3.0% of GDP over the medium term. More
  10. 26 Feb, 2015

    Government adheres to commitment of fiscal consolidation despite deterioration in GDP growth outlook

    Against a backdrop of a fragile economic growth outlook and risks of further sovereign downgrades, the 2015 Budget continues to demonstrate a commitment to efforts of fiscal consolidation, a lowering of the budget deficit and stabilising debt levels. More