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Research and Insights

  1. UK election latest – 38 days to go

    Philip Shaw

    30 Mar, 2015

    The dissolution of parliament at midnight last night marks the official start of the General Election campaign.

    1. Deceleration in household credit growth remains a feature at the start of 2015

      Annabel Bishop

      30 Mar, 2015

      Growth in private sector credit extension came out at 8.7% y/y in February, compared to a 9.2% y/y increase in January.

    2. The week ahead: Monday 30 March 2015

      Philip Shaw

      30 Mar, 2015

      On the international stage there are likely to be several big focal points for financial markets. Firstly, on the geo-political stage, eyes will be trailed on developments that follow the Saudi authorities’ airstrikes in Yemen and, in particular, the extent to which these lead to a broad ratcheting up in the Middle East conflict.

    1. UK election latest – 38 days to go

      Philip Shaw

      30 Mar, 2015

      The dissolution of parliament at midnight last night marks the official start of the General Election campaign.

    2. SARB keeps repo rate unchanged but substantially raises 2015 CPI forecast with risks weighted to the upside

      Annabel Bishop

      27 Mar, 2015

      In accordance with market expectations, the SARB MPC maintained the repo rate at 5.75%. The accompanying statement conveyed a less dovish bias than previously, as the inflation outlook for this year has deteriorated since the SARB last met in January.

    1. Global Economic Overview - Of Impatience, Noflation and Greccidents…

      Philip Shaw

      27 Mar, 2015

      Global sentiment continues to be heavily swayed by the every word of the US Fed as it gears up for ‘normalisation’. The March FOMC policy statement left markets with the impression that the Fed was not in a particular rush to raise rates, despite the removal of the reference to the FOMC being ‘patient’.

    2. Employment update: non-farm employment decreases in 2014 and 2015 job prospects are muted

      Annabel Bishop

      24 Mar, 2015

      Based on the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) for Q4.14, non-farm employment levels increased marginally, by 42 000 to 8.99mn individuals from 8.95mn in Q3.14. Compared to Q4.13, employment levels were down by 20 000.

    1. CPI inflation – Touch and go for negative territory?

      Philip Shaw

      24 Mar, 2015

      CPI inflation fell by more than expected in February, declining to 0.0% from January’s level of +0.3%. Consensus and Investec expectations had been for a more modest drop to +0.1%.

    2. UK election latest – 45 days to go

      Philip Shaw

      23 Mar, 2015

      The thrust of last week’s Budget was much along the lines as we suspected. In the near-term there were modest measures to help key groups of voters in areas such as savings, which were funded largely through an increase in the Bank Levy.

    1. The week ahead: Monday 23 March 2015

      Philip Shaw

      20 Mar, 2015

      This week’s Federal Reserve statement saw the ‘patient’ wording dropped from its guidance on rates. Critically though it also weakened its language on economic growth and exports and pushed down its GDP forecasts.