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Research and Insights

  1. January trade deficit recorded at –R24.2bn (December R6.8bn), as exports fell by R20bn on the decline in commodity prices, weak global demand and production constraints

    Annabel Bishop

    03 Mar, 2015

    The trade deficit recorded –R24.2bn in January, partly due to the seasonal component of reduced work days which typically sees a large deficit at the start of the year.

    1. Vehicle Sales update: new vehicles sales performance reflective of relatively modest economic growth

      Annabel Bishop

      03 Mar, 2015

      Total new vehicle sales registered only modest growth of 1.1% y/y in February, following a contraction of 1.3% y/y in January.

    2. January trade deficit recorded at –R24.2bn (December R6.8bn), as exports fell by R20bn on the decline in commodity prices, weak global demand and production constraints

      Annabel Bishop

      03 Mar, 2015

      The trade deficit recorded –R24.2bn in January, partly due to the seasonal component of reduced work days which typically sees a large deficit at the start of the year.

    1. PMI update: operating conditions deteriorate in February as load shedding and weak global trade growth constrain production

      Annabel Bishop

      02 Mar, 2015

      The manufacturing PMI reflected a substantial deterioration in operating conditions in February. For the first time since August 2014, the index level dropped back below to 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Specifically, the index declined to 47.6 from 54.2 in January.

    2. PMI update: operating conditions deteriorate in February as load shedding and weak global trade growth constrain production

      Annabel Bishop

      02 Mar, 2015

      The manufacturing PMI reflected a substantial deterioration in operating conditions in February. For the first time since August 2014, the index level dropped back below to 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Specifically, the index declined to 47.6 from 54.2 in January.

    1. The week ahead: Monday 2 March 2015

      Philip Shaw

      02 Mar, 2015

      For markets globally, a major focus for the week ahead will be Friday’s report on the US labour market. It will be eyed with even more keenness than usual following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s recent monetary policy testimonies.

    2. Slower credit growth, higher taxes and modest real income growth to act as constraints on household spending

      Annabel Bishop

      27 Feb, 2015

      Private sector credit extension increased at a pace of 9.2% y/y in January, compared to an 8.6% y/y rise in December. The lift in the annual growth rate was underpinned by faster growth in credit extension to corporates of 15.4% y/y versus a prior 14.0% y/y. Household loan growth moderated to 3.5% y/y from 3.7% y/y.

    1. Week Ahead: Effects of national rolling power outages and weak export growth likely to constrain expansion of manufacturing output

      Annabel Bishop

      27 Feb, 2015

      Key data releases in the week ahead

       

      SA: Manufacturing PMI, Vehicle Sales, International Reserves
      US: Non-Farm Payrolls, Factory Orders, PCE Index, ISM Index
      Euro zone: ECB Announcement, Final Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment

    2. MPC preview – next rate move up, but not for a while

      Annabel Bishop

      27 Feb, 2015

      The MPC makes its March announcement on Thursday, six years to the day that the committee reduced the Bank rate to 0.5% and launched what has been a £375bn Quantitative Easing programme.

    1. A somewhat better than expected budget showing a reduction in projected net debt (% of GDP), consolidation of the deficit and reduction in expenditure growth – likely to prompt neutral to positive comments from the rating agencies

      Annabel Bishop

      26 Feb, 2015

      SA’s 2015 Budget shows lower than previously projected debt for the medium-term (net debt now projected at 43.7% in 2017/18 from a MTBPS estimate of 45.9% of GDP), while the fiscal deficit averages exactly 3.0% of GDP over the medium term. This should certainly placate the rating agencies, with the main budget primary balance reaching 0% in 2017/18, evidencing sustainable future government finances.