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Research and Insights

  1. February retail sales growth subsides to 2.2% y/y, reflecting the weak nature of underlying consumer demand

    Annabel Bishop

    16 Apr, 2014

    Retail sales growth corrected lower in February, to 2.2% y/y, from the statistically distorted 6.4% y/y in January (revised down from 6.8% y/y previously), below market expectations of 3.8% y/y. Monthly growth contracted by 0.2% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared to an increase of 0.5% m/m in January.

    1. The Week Ahead: Monday 14 April 2014

      Philip Shaw

      14 Apr, 2014

      In the wake of the various IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, policymakers’ jawboning will remain a feature of the landscape next week. In particular, ECB President Mario Draghi holds a press conference over the weekend, while Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on a couple of occasions, most notably from the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday.

    2. GDP growth to surpass 3.0%, despite construction dip

      Philip Shaw

      11 Apr, 2014

      Construction output declined by 2.8% on the month in February, following an upward revised increase of 2.1% in January.

    1. MPC reaction - On an even keel, despite firmer growth

      Philip Shaw

      10 Apr, 2014

      The MPC once again maintained its prevailing policy stance at April’s meeting, leaving the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase target at £375bn.

    2. The Week Ahead: Monday 7 April 2014

      Philip Shaw

      07 Apr, 2014

      There will be a significant focus on Washington over much of next week as senior global policymakers assemble there for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings.

    1. The Week Ahead: Monday 7 April 2014

      Philip Shaw

      07 Apr, 2014

      There will be a significant focus on Washington over much of next week as senior global policymakers assemble there for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings.

    2. MPC preview: A shorter, narrow debate

      Philip Shaw

      04 Apr, 2014

      Perhaps the most telling point about April’s MPC meeting is that it has been condensed to one day, on Wednesday 9th, to enable several MPC members to participate in the IMF related meetings in Washington towards the end of the week.

    1. ECB reaction – Draghi steps up rhetoric against ‘lowflation’

      Philip Shaw

      03 Apr, 2014

      At today’s meeting the ECB Governing Council (GC) maintained its key interest rates at 0.25% (refi rate), 0% (deposit rate) and 0.75% (marginal lending rate). There had been a modest amount of speculation that the GC could cut rates in response to March’s ‘flash’ estimate of HICP inflation falling to 0.5%, released on Monday.

    2. The Week Ahead: Monday 31 March 2014

      Philip Shaw

      31 Mar, 2014

      In terms of economic events, Friday’s US jobs data should act as its usual role as the key determinant of market sentiment.

    1. Strong growth momentum, record current account deficits

      Philip Shaw

      28 Mar, 2014

      Second revisions to Q4 GDP left the broad trends in the economy unaltered from previous estimates, with growth on the quarter in Q4 unrevised at +0.7%, in line with consensus and our own expectations. The pace of inventory building was adjudged to be slower than in last month’s release, and the drag on growth on the quarter of 0.8% is greater than the 0.2% thought previously. Meanwhile net trade is now reckoned to have made a greater contribution of +1.0% instead of +0.4%. Changes to previous figures were modest but in a net downward direction, such that growth in 2013 as a whole is now reckoned to be 1.7%, down a touch from 1.8%.